Find the actor you forgot
Actor discovery searches for everyone who can move the outcome and researches each one: what they want, what they can do, who they answer to.
Most strategic surprises come from a player nobody put on the whiteboard.
For decisions other people get a say in
A machine that can predict the future.
It won’t tell you what will happen. It will tell you what usually happens, what could ruin you, and what to change.
Wargame turns every actor in your decision into an AI agent, plays the situation out thousands of times, and finds the moves that improve your odds. Mergers. Elections. Negotiations. Bids.
Sound familiar?
Big decisions fail where other people make their move.
The forecast was one number, and the world did something else.
Nobody modelled what the other side would do when you moved.
The board asks “what if?” and the answer is another week of slides.
You made the call, and now you can’t show why it was a good one.
The average is a lie
Plans fail in the tail, not the middle.
You wouldn’t wade across a river that is four feet deep on average. Yet most decisions go to the board as one number: the expected value, the base case.
Wargame plays your situation out thousands of times and shows you the whole shape: the futures that keep happening, and the ones that would sink you.
You can’t remove the uncertainty. You can see its shape.
+£83m
The average outcome. On a slide, this deal looks safe.
11%
Of futures lose more than £150m. The average hides them.
10,000
Simulated futures. Illustrative: a fictional acquisition.
How it works
Model the people. Play it out. Change the odds.
01
Describe the situation
In plain English. A bid for a rival. A bill that needs forty more votes. A price cut your competitors will notice. Wargame drafts the model in minutes.
02
Every actor becomes an agent
Wargame finds the companies, boards, regulators, investors, politicians and unions who can move the outcome, researches each one with sources, and gives each its own goals, constraints and relationships.
03
You check its thinking
Your experts review the actors, the assumptions and the evidence. Wargame challenges its own model and tells you what looks weak.
04
Thousands of futures
A Monte Carlo simulation plays the situation out thousands of times, varying everything uncertain. Every agent acts for itself, reacting to you and to each other.
05
Optimise the odds
Wargame searches for the moves that raise the chance of the outcome you want. Change a parameter, run it again, and see how far the odds move.
Optimise
Find the smallest move that changes the outcome most.
Prediction is half of it. Then Wargame searches for the actions that shift the odds: a remedy offered early, a call to one shareholder, a concession, a change of timing.
It doesn’t share your instincts about what is sensible, so it finds moves nobody in the room suggested. Change the parameters, run it again, and see exactly how far the odds move.
| Outcome | BeforeAfter |
|---|---|
| Closes on terms | 54% 66% |
| Closes at a higher price | 21% 20% |
| Lost to a rival bid | 13% 6% |
| Blocked by the regulator | 9% 6% |
| Abandoned | 3% 2% |
What it does
Every part is there to make the answer one you can trust, and defend.
Every actor thinks for itself
Each actor is an agent with objectives, incentives, capabilities and constraints. In the simulation they react to your move and to each other’s.
You stop asking what you should do in a vacuum, and start asking what they will do when you do it.
Evidence you can trace
Every fact is marked evidenced, inferred or user-defined, with its source. Experts review the assumptions before anything runs.
You can tell the board which parts are known and which are judgement.
The real calendar
Past, current and upcoming events sit on the timeline: earnings, elections, rulings, funding rounds, leadership changes.
“What if the ruling lands before the vote?” becomes a setting, not a meeting.
Thousands of futures, not one forecast
Monte Carlo simulation runs the scenario up to 200,000 times. Deep mode lets each agent reason through every move. Hybrid gives that care to the actors that matter most.
You see the 1-in-8 disaster as well as the likely case.
Every number has a story
Outcomes read as rates, such as “occurred in 23% of simulations under the current model and assumptions”. Open any run and follow how it got there.
Nobody has to trust a black box.
Know what to find out next
Sensitivity shows which assumptions and actors drive the result, and where better evidence would change it most.
Your research budget goes on the uncertainty that matters.
Find the move that changes the odds
Intervention search looks for the actions that raise the chance of the outcome you want, or cut a risk. Run the change and compare it with the original.
Often the best move is a small one nobody in the room suggested.
A board paper that shows its working
Reports give recommended actions with consequences, alternatives, uncertainty and the assumptions behind them. Every run keeps its seed and model version, so anyone can reproduce it.
Six months later you can show exactly what the model said, and why.
What leaders use it for
Any decision where the outcome depends on what other people do.
Mergers and acquisitions
“If we bid at this price, does the deal close, and who stops it?”
Political events
“Will the bill pass, and which amendment gets it over the line?”
Negotiations
“What do they do if we walk away?”
Competitive response
“If we cut prices by 10%, what do our competitors do next?”
Boardroom and leadership crises
“Does the CEO survive the quarter, and what happens to the company if not?”
Policy and programmes
“Which action most improves the odds this programme succeeds?”
Why leaders buy it
The numbers are only part of it.
Make the bold call. Show your working.
Leaders are rarely punished for a conventional decision that fails, and often punished for a bold one that does. Wargame makes the bold decision defensible: every assumption written down, reviewed by experts and tested thousands of times.
Disagree about the assumptions, not each other.
When the leadership team argues about the actors and the numbers, the argument moves from people to parameters. Whatever the answer, the room leaves aligned on why.
Rehearse the future before you live it.
Pilots train in simulators. Armies have wargamed for two centuries. Wargame lets you crash the deal, lose the vote and blow the negotiation a thousand times, at no cost, before you do it for real.
What it won’t do
We’d rather you trusted it than believed it.
A prediction is only as good as the model behind it. So we show you the model.
- It is not an oracle. It tells you what usually happens under the model, not what will happen.
- Every probability is conditional on the model and its assumptions. We show them all.
- A carefully reviewed model is worth more than a precise-looking number.
- Sensitivity is part of the answer, not a footnote. If the result hangs on one guess, you will know.
Request a demo
Forty-five minutes. See it predict, then see it change the odds.
Wargame is yours to run. Your team builds the models, reviews the assumptions and runs the simulations. The demo shows you how.
01
Your decision
Tell us what you’re facing, and who else gets a move.
02
A model from a prompt
Watch Wargame build a scenario from one sentence: the actors, their research, their relationships.
03
Thousands of futures
Run the simulation, read the distribution, and follow a single future from start to finish.
04
Change the odds
Search for interventions, change a parameter, run it again and compare.
05
Run it live
See how a leadership team uses it in the room: one screen, one model, everyone’s assumptions on it.
06
Your questions
Ask anything, then decide whether a pilot on your own decision makes sense.
What decision is on your desk where you wish you knew what the other side would do?
See Wargame build a model from one sentence, play it out thousands of times, and find the moves that change the odds.